This was published 6 years ago
After referendum, majority of Catalans - who did not vote - ask: what now?
By Ellen Barry
Barcelona: A tide of emotion has washed over Catalonia in the past few days, over those who demand separation from Spain and those who oppose it. Graffiti has appeared overnight, proclaiming, "We are not Spanish."
Crowds have marched past gawking tourists, singing, "I am, I am, I am Spanish."
Two Spaniards wearing a Spanish flag and a Catalan independence flag, walk along the street in Barcelona.Credit: AP
One thing that unites them is that they have very little idea what an independent Catalonia would look like. Would it be readmitted to the European Union? Would it use a new currency? Would trade plummet? Would they be separated from their family members in Spain?
In the turbulence over Sunday's referendum, there had been surprisingly little public debate about the practical effect of declaring independence. Spain's heavy-handed response made the referendum into a battle over the right to vote, an issue over which there is far greater consensus in Catalonia.
A man shouts while holding up a scarf reading 'Catalunya' during a pro-independence demonstration . Credit: Bloomberg
Now that pro-independence Catalans have voted, those who stayed home are asking: What just happened? And what happens now?
In interviews across Barcelona this week, many expressed confidence that the fuzzy details of statehood could be worked out. But an equal number were apprehensive, even alarmed, at the plunge toward independence the referendum set in motion.
"Explain it to me: If I stay here, would there be advantages or disadvantages?" asked Loli Risco, 59. "They are not explaining anything. They are just saying, 'This is what I want.' I want to keep the euro, and I want to keep being European. What will I do? I will sell my apartment and I will leave."
Risco and her daughter had stayed home Sunday, and they said that their voices had been excluded from the drama of the referendum.
A man with the Catalan flag painted on his face attends a demonstration downtown Barcelona, Spain.Credit: AP
Catalan leaders declared that 90 percent of voters supported separation, a result that made it clear that almost the only people motivated to vote were the ones who wanted independence.
Yet, like Risco and her daughter, more than half of Catalonia's eligible voters did not vote or brave the police who used truncheons and rubber bullets to enforce the central government's order to stop a referendum it considered illegal.
Anti Catalan independence demonstrators carry a Spanish flag as they march in Barcelona, Spain.Credit: AP
The result has left not only Spain but Catalonia itself divided.
A few doors away from Risco, at a shop that sold preserved hocks of pork, Noemi Aguro, 38, was unsympathetic to those people who did not vote, saying they had no choice now but to accept the results.
"They didn't vote. They had the chance. They shouldn't complain now," Aguro said.
Economists generally agree that Catalonia would be economically viable as an independent country, but they differ on the impact on jobs, barriers to trade and the spending needs of the new state.
The separatist government would have to negotiate thorny issues with Spain, such as how to apportion Spain's debt, now equivalent to just over 100 per cent of its gross domestic product.
Xavier Sala-i-Martin, an economist and professor at Columbia University who has spearheaded the separatist drive, contends that a unilateral departure of Catalonia could leave Spain solely responsible for its debt.
Catalan's separatist government, which published a "white book" outlining plans for an independent state in 2014, said Catalonia would assume a portion of the debt if Spain agreed to transfer state-owned infrastructure and other assets to the separatist government.
The separatist government proposes replacing Spain's army with its own, estimating the cost at 350 million euros, or about $411 million, a year.
But that estimate, like almost every other, has been challenged by economists as too optimistic; Josep Borrell and Joan Llorach note that NATO's annual membership fee alone is 3 billion euros, or roughly $3.5 billion.
Sevi Rodriguez Mora, a professor at the University of Edinburgh, calculates that added barriers to trade between Catalonia and the rest of Spain would cause a 10 per cent drop in the region's gross domestic product. But he added that economic arguments had been pushed to the margins of the debate.
"Economics is a sideshow, used by one side or the other as propaganda," he said. "Everything is about identity politics. It's a definition of 'us.'"
Many young activists -- the core of the movement's public support -- expressed serene confidence that added tax revenue would more than make up for the drop in trade, even if Catalonia was forced to remain outside the European Union.
Gala Cabre, 16, was sitting outside Barcelona's Museum of Contemporary Art, where skateboarders clattered across the plaza, and said Catalonia would thrive as a small, wealthy enclave. Her point of comparison was Andorra.
"Andorra is an independent country that has its own currency," Cabre said, as her friends nodded encouragement. (Actually, it uses the euro.) "Everything is cheaper there. Andorra has a lot of police. It's a very safe country."
She and her friends, who planned to spend Tuesday "screaming and saying what we want" during a regionwide general strike, also felt sure that the European Union would ultimately welcome Catalonia, even if Spain opposed it.
Dona Barragin, 17, said various European powers, like Germany and Britain, had quietly signalled their support. "Maybe they have not told us officially, but they support us," she said. "Inside, they support us."
European Union leaders have in fact been reluctant to embrace Catalonia's cause for fear of fuelling broader separatist forces in the bloc and its member states.
The depth of support for independence even in Catalonia is hotly disputed. Opinion polls, although of uncertain reliability, have shown a split in opinion that hovers around 50 per cent.
In 2012, for the first time, 51.1 percent of respondents favoured independence, according to the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinio, the official Catalan polling agency. In the most recent regional parliamentary elections, in 2015, 48 per cent of voters cast their vote for pro-independence parties.
Rodriguez said the split in opinion correlated with income, with villagers and affluent urbanites generally in favour of independence, while working-class urbanites, many of whom have roots in other parts of Spain, opposed it.
Alberto Vallespin, 44, who owns a locksmith's shop in central Barcelona, is from an old Catalan family but worries about the effect on his business, which has suppliers and customers in other parts of Spain.
Separation could mean additional taxes on those transactions, Vallespin said, especially if the process is rancorous. And he dismissed the idea that the European Union would accept Catalonia anytime soon.
"Things won't be better" if Catalonia wins independence, he said. "And they may be worse."
But Vallespin had not taken part in the referendum, or gone out to demonstrate or closed his shop for the general strike Tuesday. He had customers lined up at the counter.
He was part of a vast city that carried on as usual all week, while the chanting crowds marched past.
"In the end, the people fighting are the ones who support independence," said Gemma Martin, 33, a cashier at a crystal shop in the old city. "The rest of us are just watching."
New York Times